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toeclim

toeclim answers a simple question: when does the climate change signal in my time series emerge from natural variability?

It estimates a smooth signal, measures noise from a baseline period, and reports the time of emergence (ToE) with bootstrap uncertainty, threshold-sensitivity analysis and ensemble support. It has no dependencies beyond base R.

Installation

# From CRAN (once released)
install.packages("toeclim")

# Development version: install from a local tarball
install.packages("toeclim_0.1.0.tar.gz", repos = NULL, type = "source")

Example

library(toeclim)

d <- toe_simulate(n_years = 150, slope = 0.03, onset = 1970, seed = 10)

fit <- toe_emerge(d$member_01, d$year, baseline = c(1900, 1950),
                  k = 2, persist = 5, n_boot = 500, seed = 1)
fit
plot(fit)

toe_prob(fit, times = c(1990, 2000, 2010))
toe_sensitivity(d$member_01, d$year, baseline = c(1900, 1950))

Main functions

Function	Purpose
`toe_emerge()`	Time of emergence for one series, with optional bootstrap
`toe_ensemble()`	Emergence across ensemble members, plus pooled estimate
`toe_prob()`	Probability of emergence by a given time
`toe_sensitivity()`	ToE over a grid of thresholds and persistence lengths
`toe_trend()`	Sen’s slope and Mann-Kendall test with trend-free prewhitening
`toe_noise()`	Noise standard deviation, autocorrelation, effective sample size
`toe_annual()`, `toe_anomaly()`	Prepare monthly/daily data
`toe_simulate()`, `toe_example`	Synthetic data with a known signal

References

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2012). Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L01702. doi:10.1029/2011GL050087

How to cite

If you use toeclim in your work, please cite it. In R, run:

citation("toeclim")

which gives:

Fahim A (2026). toeclim: Time of Emergence of Climate Signals from Internal Variability. R package version 0.1.0.

Please also cite the method that this package builds on:

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2012). Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L01702. doi:10.1029/2011GL050087

Author

Abul Kashem Faruki Fahim (ORCID 0000-0002-8554-4730), University of Dhaka. Contact: farukifahim@du.ac.bd

License

MIT

These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
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