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smooth
The package smooth contains several smoothing (exponential
and not) functions that are used in forecasting.
Here is the list of the included functions:
adam - Advanced Dynamic Adaptive Model, implementing ETS, ARIMA and
regression and their combinations;
es - the ETS function. It can handle exogenous variables and has a
handy “holdout” parameter. There are several cost function implemented,
including trace forecast based ones. Model selection is done via branch
and bound algorithm and there’s a possibility to use AIC weights in
order to produce combined forecasts. Finally, all the possible ETS
functions are implemented here.
ces - Complex Exponential Smoothing. Function estimates CES and
makes forecast. See documentation for details.
gum - Generalised Exponential Smoothing. Next step from CES. The
paper on this is in the process.
sma - Simple Moving Average in state space form.
ssarima - SARIMA estimated in state space framework.
msarima - Multiple seasonal ARIMA, allows multiple seasonalities and
works in a finite time.
auto.ces - selection between seasonal and non-seasonal CES
models.
auto.ssarima - selection between different State-Space ARIMA
models.
auto.msarima - selection between different multiple SARIMA
models.
auto.gum - automatic selection of the most appropriate GUM
model.
sim.es - simulation of data using ETS framework with a predefined
(or random) smoothing parameters and initial values.
sim.ssarima - simulation of data using State-Space ARIMA framework
with a predefined (or randomly generated) parameters and initial
values.
sim.ces - simulation of data using CES with a predefined (or random)
complex smoothing parameters and initial values.
sim.gum - simulation functions for GUM.
sim.sma - simulates data from SMA.
oes - occurrence state space exponential smoothing model. This
function models the part with data occurrences using one of the
following methods: fixed, odds ratio, inverse odds ratio, direct or
general. It can also select the most appropriate between the five.
sowhat - returns the ultimate answer to any question.
smoothCombine - the function that combines forecasts from es(),
ces(), gum(), ssarima() and sma() functions.
cma - Centred Moving Average. This is the function used for
smoothing of time series, not for forecasting.
msdecompose - multiple seasonal decomposition based on centred
moving averages.
Available methods:
AIC, BIC, AICc, BICc;
coefficients;
multicov - covariance matrix of multiple steps ahead forecast
errors;
errorType - the type of the error in the model: either additive or
multiplicative;
fitted;
forecast;
actuals;
lags - lags of the model (mainly needed for ARIMA and GUM);
logLik;
modelType - type of the estimated model (mainly needed for ETS and
CES);
nobs;
nparam - number of the estimated parameters in the model;
orders - orders of the components of the model (mainly needed for
ARIMA, GUM and SMA);
outlierdummy - creates a matrix of dummy variables, based on the
detected outliers in the residuals of the model;
residuals - the residuals of the model (et in case of additive and
log(1+et) for the multiplicative ones);
rstandard - standardised residuals;
rstudent - studentised residuals;
plot - produces several plots for diagnostics purposes. See the
documentation for plot.smooth();
pls - Prediction Likelihood Score for the model and the provided
holdout;
pointLik - the vector of the individual likelihoods for each
in-sample observation;
pAIC - point AIC, based on pointLik
print;
sigma;
simulate;
summary;
Future works:
nus - Non-uniform Smoothing. The estimation method used in order to
update parameters of regression models.
sofa - Survival of the fittest algorithm applied to state space
models.
Installation
The stable version of the package is available on CRAN, so you can
install it by running: > install.packages(“smooth”)
A recent, development version, is available via github and can be
installed using “remotes” in R. First, make sure that you have remotes:
> if (!require(“remotes”)){install.packages(“remotes”)}
and after that run: >
remotes::install_github(“config-i1/smooth”)
Notes
The package depends on Rcpp and RcppArmadillo, which will be
installed automatically.
However Mac OS users may need to install gfortran libraries in order
to use Rcpp. Follow the link for the instructions:
http://www.thecoatlessprofessor.com/programming/rcpp-rcpparmadillo-and-os-x-mavericks-lgfortran-and-lquadmath-error/
Sometimes after upgrade of smooth from previous versions some
functions stop working. This is because C++ functions are occasionally
stored in deeper unknown corners of R’s mind. Restarting R usually
solves the problem. If it doesn’t, completely remove smooth (uninstal +
delete the folder “smooth” from R packages folder), restart R and
reinstall smooth.
These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development. They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them. Health stats visible at Monitor.