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county_turnout_panel (random forest via
ranger), adds a summary table of method assumptions and
coverage guarantees, and a new appendix evaluating the example with
interval_score() and interval_width().
ranger added to Suggests.importFrom("stats", "lm.fit") to the
NAMESPACEcounty_turnout_panel gains 16 columns (now 38 total):
total_votes and cvap — the turnout
numerator and denominator, so turnout and every share is
reproducible from the shipped data.votes_dem, votes_rep,
votes_other and the matching dem_share,
rep_share, other_share — presidential votes
and vote shares by party (Libertarian/Green pooled into “other” for a
consistent panel).election_year: turnout_county_mean /
turnout_electorate and
{dem,rep,other}_share_county_mean /
_electorate — the unweighted county-wise mean and the
pooled electorate-wide (“true”) turnout and vote shares for each
election, computed over the full electorate.county_turnout_panel now excludes the 25
micro-county-years whose recorded presidential ballots exceeded the
noisy 5-year ACS CVAP estimate (turnout > 1), leaving 15,543 rows.
Rows with an unknown (NA) turnout are still retained. The
filtering is performed by the build pipeline in
data-raw/.county_turnout_panel: a tidy five-wave
county-level panel of U.S. presidential-election turnout and ACS
demographic context for the 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections
(15,568 rows). Turnout is votes cast divided by Citizen Voting-Age
Population (CVAP). All demographic covariates are re-derived directly
from the U.S. Census Bureau API (not IPUMS NHGIS, to comply with NHGIS’s
non-redistribution terms) and match the vintage of each election. Ships
with a full codebook at
system.file("extdata", "county_turnout_panel_codebook.md", package = "pintervals")
and a reproducible build pipeline in data-raw/.county_turnout (the original single-election 2016
cross-section) is superseded by
county_turnout_panel but retained for
backward compatibility; it is still used by the package vignette and
examples. Its data are unchanged.?county_turnout previously stated
that turnout was “total votes cast divided by total
population”. It is in fact votes divided by the Citizen Voting-Age
Population (CVAP); the help page has been corrected.
county_turnout_panel$turnout uses this same definition and
reproduces the 2016 county_turnout values for 3,103 of the
3,107 shared counties. The Details section of
?county_turnout (the predicted_turnout
reproduction code) also now renders — it was previously dropped because
of an unescaped % in the Rd source.These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
Health stats visible at Monitor.