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Multiple regression: mcp now
supports several continuous predictors, categorical predictors,
interactions, etc. for all terms on RHS. E.g.,
~ 1 + x + x:state + sigma(1 + state) + ar(2, 0 + z).
Basically, it now aims to “feel” like lm() or
glm() for each distributional parameter in each segment.
Explore ex = mcp_example("multiple") to see it in action
and read more in Understanding
mcp formulas. Default priors follow rstanarm and
brms where possible. With this possibility for more
parameters also comes the convenient same(), which shares
coefficients across segments - including categorical predictors and
group-level effects (read
more).
Group-level effects on RHS: Predictor formulas
now support group-level effects (random effects) using familiar
lme4 and brms syntax. (1 | group)
specifies a group-level intercept, while (1 + x || group)
and (factor || group) support independent coefficients,
including slopes and factors. This also works inside distributional
formulas such as sigma(1 + (factor || id)). See
mcp_example("group_mu") and the article
on group-level effects for worked examples. Correlated
multi-coefficient terms are not yet supported.
Native feel: mcpfits now work
natively with R generics, {posterior} and
{tidybayes} posterior draw and prediction API. Changes
include:
summary(fit) now reports rank-normalized
split-rhat, ess_bulk, and
ess_tail from {posterior} and central quantile
intervals instead of HDIs.
Adding as_draws(fit), as_draws_df(fit),
tidy_draws(fit), ndraws(fit),
variables(fit), posterior_epred(fit),
posterior_predict(fit),
posterior_linpred(fit), loo_compare(), etc.
with full S3 generic registration for {posterior},
{rstantools}, and {tidybayes}
(spread_draws(), gather_draws()).
bayesplot::mcmc_trace(fit) etc. work too now.
Per-draw methods (summary = FALSE in
fitted(), predict(), residuals(),
log_lik()) now return dot-prefixed columns
(.epred, .prediction, .residual,
.loglik) for {tidybayes} /
{ggdist} compatibility. fitted() returns
.linpred with scale = "linear" and
[.dpar] for other dpars (e.g., .sigma,
.ar1, or mu). See Fits and
predictions.
nsamples soft-deprecated in favor of
ndraws; which_y deprecated in favor of
dpar.
Added R generics for mcpfits: formula(fit),
family(fit), model.frame(fit),
nobs(fit), vcov(fit),
confint(fit), and coef(fit). As in
lme4 and brms, coef() returns
absolute group-specific coefficients and change points, while
ranef() returns relative deviations. Fits now also store a
proper matched $call. Printed summaries now report
posterior sd and have a new layout.
Dirichlet is now the default prior on change
points: For one-change-point models, this prior is identical to
v0.3.4. The default change point prior is now the mathematically
beautiful and principled Dirichlet prior, which was previously only
supported as a secondary option. It is uniform order statistics, i.e.,
uniform priors on all change points, restricted to observed data range,
cp_i = "dunif(min(x), max(x))", and ordered:
cp_1 < cp_2 < .... After ordering, this results in a
scaled beta prior for each change point. See
a more formal description here. While the dunif()-specification is
the new default, the old cp_i = "dirichlet(alpha)" syntax
remains supported (see breaking changes below). New: set a minimum
segment length, e.g., cp_2 = "dunif(cp_1 + 20, max(x))".
For models with 2+ change points, the previous sequentially truncated
\(t\)-distributions centered at
min(x) have been removed. Truncated-t only served the
purpose of higher ESS/s at the expense of being mathematically
unprincipled. A new implementation in JAGS makes it fast. Although this
is a mathematical change, parameter posteriors remain essentially
identical to previous fits for all mcp_example(). Any
hypothesis(fit, "cp_1 = 20") (Savage-Dickey Bayes factor)
on default priors will likely differ, but BF is ill advised on default
priors anyway - that is why hypothesis() now throws a
warning if this is attempted.
Negative binomial and offset(): You can now do
mcp(..., family = negbinomial()). NB (and Poisson) can now
model rates and exposure because offset() is now supported
in formulas - also for other families. If one segment includes an
offset(), all segments must include one. See the
Poisson and negative-binomial article for an applied
example.
Missing response imputation: Missing responses
are now retained as posterior JAGS imputations and used to complete
response histories in AR/MA models. Predictions generate fresh
replicated outcomes at every row;
predict(fit) |> filter(is.na(y)) can be used to see
predictive intervals and draws at missing points, and similarly
fitted() for expected responses. Missing AR/MA histories
remain unsupported in log_lik(), loo(), and
waic(). See the article
on missing data.
Improved speed and robustness: ESS/s has improved more than 10-fold and convergence is more likely. This is due to reparameterizations that keep intercepts and slopes relatively independent of earlier segments during sampling and due to (selectively) using the JAGS glm module. The reparameterizations do not change the model or its priors.
mcp v0.4 is a major breaking change with the aim of remaining relatively stable going forward towards version 1.0. Although a lot has been updated, the parameter estimates in v0.4.0 remain practically identical to the previous public release (v0.3.4). Deprecation detections have been added until we reach 1.0.
Renamed parameters and column names to align
with {brms}: int_i –>
Intercept_i; x_1_E2 –> xE2_1;
x_1_sin –> sinx_1, cp_1_sd
–> cp_1_id_sd (for (1 | id)), etc.
Interactions join their parts with a dot, e.g., x:stateB
–> x.stateB_1.
Renamed return column names to align with
{posterior} and others:
summary(), fixef(), and
ranef() now name the parameter identifier column
parameter instead of name, matching
prior_summary() and mcp_pars().
fitted(), predict(),
residuals(), and log_lik() with
summary = TRUE now take width = 0.95 instead
of probs (deprecated with warning) and return the columns
.mean, .sd, .lower, and
.upper instead of
fitted/predict/residuals/loglik,
error, Q2.5, and Q97.5. This
matches summary() (width, mean,
sd, lower, upper), while the dot
prefix prevents collisions with data columns, as in
broom::augment(). Consequently, data columns named
sd, fitted, predict, etc. are no
longer rejected. For other quantiles, summarise the draws from
summary = FALSE. The evaluation-row key
data_row is now .row, matching
{tidybayes}.
plot(fit, q_fit, q_predict) is deprecated in favor
of
plot(fit, interval = c("fitted", "predict"), width = 0.95).
This matches the new width in summary(),
fitted(), and predict(). Add other quantiles
as a ggplot2 layer from fitted(..., summary = FALSE)
instead.
Rhat was renamed to rhat in
summary(), fixef(), and ranef(),
to match {posterior} standard.
hypothesis() returns column prob
instead of p for the posterior (or prior) probability of
directional hypotheses, preventing confusion with frequentist p-values.
It also returns the posterior sd of the hypothesis, like
summary().
Change points are modeled using
cp(): Segments 2+ are now one-sided formulas, and
change points are modeled using cp(), e.g.,
list(y ~ 1, ~ cp((1 | id)) + 0 + x) instead of
list(y ~ 1, 1 + (1 | id) ~ 0 + x). This avoids confusing
the left-hand side with the response variable. The old syntax is
deprecated and works with a warning that shows the new formula.
formula(fit) and summary(fit) show the new
syntax.
Parameters and outputs:
fit$pars and fit$mcmc_loglik were
removed and now raise helpful errors. fit$pars is now
replaced with mcp_pars(fit) and
mcp_columns(fit). fit$mcmc_loglik is no longer
stored - generate using log_lik(fit).
mcp:::tidy_samples() is removed. Use
as_draws_df(fit) or
tidybayes::spread_draws().
fixef() now reports only population-level effects
for mu (the primary response parameter), excluding change
points, other distributional parameters, AR/MA parameters, and
group-effect SDs. Use summary(fit) to get all
parameters.
In general, renamed "varying" to
"group", e.g., it is now
plot_pars(fit, pars = "group") and
fitted(fit, group_effects = "x_2_id"). varying
is a deprecated alias with a warning.
summary(), fixef(),
ranef(), prior_summary(),
as_draws(), fit$prior,
fit$simulate(), and everything else now order parameters
canonically as in mcp_pars() instead of the previous
incidental (near-alphabetical) order; group levels follow the grouping
factor’s levels in the fitting data. Draws from fitted(),
predict(), etc. with summary = FALSE are
ordered by data row, then draw, as in {tidybayes}. Use
verbose = TRUE with summary(),
fixef(), or ranef() to include
segment and dpar columns.
Tibbles are generally returned instead of data.frame() for
readability. Tibbles are data frames, but x[, "col"] now
returns a one-column tibble instead of a vector. Use x$col
or x[["col"]] to get a vector. This change involves
summary(), fixef(), ranef(),
fitted(), predict(), residuals(),
hypothesis(), and
interpolate_newdata().
mcp no longer exports logit, ilogit, or
probit. phi() is deprecated in favor of
stats::pnorm().
Functions, plotting, and workflow:
plot() is now split into plot() for
plotting full fits while plot_dpar() plots one
distributional parameter (mu, sigma,
shape, ar1, etc.). The argument order was
changed too. The new coloring function
(plot(fit, color_by = "column")) is particularly useful
when models include categorical predictors or rhs group-level effects.
The default color_by = "auto" colors by a sole categorical
predictor. See mcp_example("group_mu") and the plotting
article for worked examples.
Parallel sampling is now controlled exclusively through the
active {future} plan. The cores argument to
mcp() is deprecated and ignored, but remains available for
backwards compatibility. Use
future::plan(future::multisession, workers = 3) before
calling mcp() to sample chains in parallel, and
future::plan(future::sequential) to shut down those
workers. Without a parallel future plan, chains are sampled
sequentially. Chain-specific initial values
(inits = list(list(...), list(...))) are now supported
under parallel execution and when supplying an explicit
seed.
Binomial predictions now default to counts:
fitted() returns expected successes and
predict() returns predicted successes
(rate = FALSE), matching posterior_epred(),
posterior_predict(), and brms. In v0.3.4 these methods
defaulted to proportions. Update old scripts with explicit
rate = TRUE to retain proportions, or
rate = FALSE to select counts. An omitted rate
warns once per session per function when the requested counts differ
from proportions.
ar(p) no longer continues into later segments:
Only terms included in a segment get coefficients there. While important
for the new multiple-regression functionality, the only backward
incompatibility is that in a model like
model = list(y ~ 1 + ar(1), ~ 0), the AR would continue
into segment 2. The equivalent model in v0.4+ is
~ 0 + ar(1, 0) in segment 2.
Explicit prior draw selection: Methods requiring draws now
require posterior draws by default and error if they are unavailable.
Use prior = TRUE to select prior draws; prior-only fits no
longer trigger an automatic fallback. This also applies to draw-count
methods, and print(fit) shows only the model unless
prior = TRUE.
The arguments for fit$simulate() have all changed to
accommodate multiple (categorical) predictors.
fit$simulate(fit, newdata, ..., .type = "predict") is the
new argument structure. Note that (1) it now requires fit
as the first argument, (2) it requires data.frame or
tibble as the second argument instead of just a vector of
par_x, (3) further arguments are prefixed with a “.” to
avoid name conflicts internally in mcp. ... are the model
parameters as usual. fit$simulate() now also preserve
shared group effects specified in priors (e.g.,
prior = list(Intercept_2_id = "Intercept_1_id")).
hypothesis() takes the fit as its first argument
x (was fit), matching
brms::hypothesis(). It now restricts equality tests to
simple parameter contrasts and gives clearer guidance on Savage-Dickey
Bayes factors. Non-linear transformations in hypotheses like
x_1 / x_2 = 1 could previously be run, even though
Savage-Dickey does not support it. Equality tests now return
prob = NA because their Bayes factor is a model comparison,
not a posterior parameter probability. Density estimates are more
robust, warn when evaluating Savage-Dickey Bayes factors on default
priors, and warn about sparse tails. A Savage-Dickey BF is
0 when no posterior draws lie on one side of the tested
value, as for directional hypotheses. See Savage-Dickey
Bayes factors.
mcp(..., adapt = 1000) is soft-deprecated in favor
of mcp(..., warmup = 1000) for compatibility with
additional future samplers.
Formula and modeling semantics:
Dropped support for rel() in formulas. This was
ambiguous for interaction terms and made the code hard to maintain.
Compute relative changes from the posterior draws as shown in Relative
changes between segments.
Dropped support for mcp(..., data = NULL). You now
must provide some mock-up data to inform mcp about the
types and levels of the predictor columns. See, e.g.,
mcp_example("intercepts")$example_code for a simple example
or mcp_example("multiple")$example_code for a more involved
example. All docs have been updated appropriately.
Gaussian models with an explicit sigma() formula now
model the residual standard deviation with a log link, as in
brms. To make the scale visible, its intercepts are named
sigma_Intercept_i (previously sigma_i),
matching Intercept_i, while slopes keep their names (e.g.,
sigma_x_2) and are now on the log scale. Models without an
explicit sigma() are unchanged: sigma_1
remains the residual SD itself with the response-scale half-Student-t
prior. See distributional
parameters.
y | weights(w) now specifies observation
log-likelihood weights rather than Gaussian-only precision weights
(which previously scaled the residual SD as
sigma / sqrt(w)). Unlike brms, weights must be
strictly positive due to JAGS requirements (cannot be zero). Predictive
draws and expectations now use the distribution parameters directly
while log_lik() multiplies observation log-densities by
w.
Formula transformations now use the original predictor values, as
in lm(), glm(), and brms.
Previously, transformations of the change-point predictor such as
sin(x) and exp(x) restarted at each change
point. Bare par_x and polynomial bases such as
I(par_x^2) are still measured from the change point to
support joined segments.
Fitting and priors:
The prior for user-specified priors on 2+ change points will
differ from mcp v0.3.4, though for informative data, posteriors will be
highly similar. User-specified priors on change points are now used
unchanged, though restricted to ordered change points. v0.3.4 imposed
ordering by truncating priors using T() at the previous
change point, e.g., dnorm(40, 10) T(cp_1, max(x)), which
pushed wide priors towards max(x). dunif()
priors and priors with T() were used unchanged, which
allowed label switching. Fixed change points, e.g.,
cp_2 = 80, are now ordered relative to the other change
points too. Priors without dunif() or T() are
truncated to the observed range of x. See priors
on change points.
The lower and upper bounds of change point priors, i.e., the
arguments of dunif() and T(), can no longer
refer to other change points, except to set a minimum segment length,
e.g., cp_2 = "dunif(cp_1 + 20, max(x))". Change points in
the distribution’s parameters remain allowed, e.g.,
cp_3 = "dnorm(cp_2 + 30, 10)".
dirichlet(alpha) now takes one shared
alpha >= 1 (non-integer allowed) for all change points
and applies it to all segments, including the last. v0.3.4 allowed
non-identical integer alpha per change point and silently
used alpha = 1 for the last segment, so
dirichlet(2) now gives a different prior. Non-identical
alphas now error.
Group-level change points (1|id) now use a standard
hierarchical normal model sampled efficiently through their absolute
locations. This makes cp_i_sd the SD of the normal
distribution before truncation rather than the realized sample
SD.
The default prior on group-level change-point SDs
(cp_i_id_sd) is now
dnorm(0, (max(x) - min(x)) / (2 * (n_cp() + 1))) T(0, ),
i.e., a quarter of the expected interval in which each group’s change
point can vary. Under the old prior, group-level change points were
barely pooled, and cp_i and cp_i_id_sd were
weakly identified. The new prior is approximately uniform on the
realized SD of the group-level change points, which differs
from cp_i_id_sd, the SD before truncation. See default
priors for the justification.
AR and MA intercepts now have zero-centered, regularizing
dnorm(0, 0.5) T(-1, 1) priors, replacing independent
uniform priors. Their categorical contrasts and numeric slopes now use
modest normal priors instead of heavy-tailed Student-t priors.
Coefficients remain direct and are not jointly constrained to stationary
or invertible regions (read
more).
Corrected the JAGS translation of prior scales.
ddexp() and dlogis() now convert their
conventional scale to inverse scale rather than inverse variance; The
exported sd_to_prec() helper is soft-deprecated because
prior translation is now an internal, sampler-specific step.
Generalized AR/MA:
Autoregression (ar()) has been generalized to
link-scale observation-driven GARMA residuals for Gaussian, binomial,
Bernoulli, Poisson, and negative-binomial models with their default
links, using ar(..., threshold = 0.1) by default to keep
observations finite on the link scale. Added moving-average terms with
ma(q), which can be used alone or combined with
ar(p) in each segment. Independent time series can be
separated using ar(..., series = <column>). Set
series and threshold once in any
ar() or ma() term; they apply to all segments.
See the article on
time series.
GARMA observation thresholds are now validated against the
support of the response: strictly below 0.5 for
family = bernoulli(), and strictly below half the smallest
trial count for family = binomial(), preventing thresholds
from erasing the binary response history.
Explicit AR/MA prediction history control: predict()
and the new posterior_predict() support
arma = "replicate" to generate fresh response series
recursively, in addition to arma = TRUE (default) to
condition on observed response histories and arma = FALSE
to omit AR/MA effects. This applies to both prior and posterior
prediction. Previously, AR history handling depended on whether response
values were supplied.
Added AR/MA warnings: (1) for AR/MA models to loo(),
predict(), etc. where the serial dependence is currently
ignored. Proper handling requires leave-future-out or blocked
cross-validation, which are not currently implemented in
mcp. (2) when posterior violation probabilities exceed the
configurable ar or ma diagnostic thresholds
(10% by default).
New features in mcp():
Added warnings when various thresholds are exceeded.
mcp(..., diagnostics = list(rhat = 1.01, ess_bulk = 400, ess_tail = 400, ar = 0.10, ma = 0.10))
controls fit diagnostics with configurable thresholds. Partial lists
override these defaults, individual diagnostics can be disabled with
NULL, and diagnostics = FALSE disables
diagnostic warnings. summary(fit) inherits these settings
and accepts its own override for the diagnostic footer.
Use mcp(..., seed = 42) or set.seed(42)
before mcp() for reproducible JAGS sampling, whether chains
run sequentially or in parallel. See
mcp_example("demo")$example_code how to ensure
reproducibility across simulation, fit, and plotting.
mcp(..., quiet = TRUE) suppresses routine JAGS
output and mcp sampling-status messages while preserving warnings and
errors. Use options(mcp_quiet = TRUE) to make this the
default for the session. The JAGS model-compilation text is no longer
printed by default.
fit$version records the versions of mcp, R, rjags,
and JAGS used to make the fit, e.g.,
fit$version$mcp >= "0.4.0".
Memory improvement: The mcpfit is now < 10% of
the size as before because the log-likelihood is not stored. Use
log_lik(fit) to compute it, or call loo(fit)
or waic(fit) directly.
Model evaluation and prediction:
Added log_lik(fit) which returns a
draws-by-observation matrix by default. This is the usual
{brms} return shape and is accepted directly by
{loo}. log_lik() supports the same arguments
as e.g. fitted().
Methods like fitted() and predict() now
select group-level effects using group_effects (previously
varying). group_effects = FALSE or
NA gives population-level predictions, "cp"
and "predictor" select all group-level effects in that
formula part, and parameter names accept * wildcards, e.g.,
fitted(fit, group_effects = c("cp_*", "state*_1_id")).
ranef() continues to return all group-level
effects.
Fits made with custom jags_code now warn when
calling R-side simulation, prediction, or model-evaluation methods,
because those methods continue to evaluate the supplied formulas rather
than the custom JAGS code. jags_code is planned for
deprecation once a future release brings custom families and tooling to
run jags_code directly in JAGS. If you need this, please open an issue
describing your use case.
fitted(), predict(),
residuals(), log_lik(), loo(),
etc. are now more memory efficient (e.g., ~2.5 GB instead of ~12 GB for
2000 observations). Use loo(fit, ndraws = 1000) to compute
LOO on a subset of draws.
Priors and hypotheses:
Added prior_summary(fit). Its compact output shows
each parameter’s resolved prior and its lower and upper bounds, marking
change points as ordered;
prior_summary(fit, verbose = TRUE) also shows the
data-dependent rule, a plain-language description, source, and kind
(distribution, alias, expression,
or constant). See Working
with priors.
With the introduction of multiple regression including
categorical predictors (including for distributional parameters) come
default priors. Coefficients are autoscaled as in rstanarm,
i.e., divided by the SD of their model-matrix column (see “Priors and
distributions” below). See
prior_summary(fit, verbose = TRUE) for details.
Added option to test hypotheses on the prior using
hypothesis(fit, prior = TRUE).
y | weights(w_col) now supported for all families
(gaussian(), binomial(),
bernoulli(), poisson(),
negbinomial()). Applies log-likelihood weights as
brms.
Plotting and examples:
Default plot(fit) style has been updated in many
ways to accommodate multiple regression and group-effects.
Predictive summaries are now exact and faster. The intervals
(plot(fit, interval = "predict") and
predict(fit)$.lower/$.upper) and moments
(predict(fit)$.mean/$.sd) are computed from
the posterior predictive distribution instead of from random
predictions.
Added interpolate_newdata(fit, by = NULL) which
generates a data.frame with all combinations of categorical predictors
along with interpolated continuous predictors. Use by to
include grouping factors. The documentation shows how this can be useful
for generating custom
plots when simple tweaking plot() is not
enough.
mcp_example(...) now shows an illustrative plot of
the fitted example by default. Disable using
plot = FALSE.
New help topics ?mcp-formula (model formulas and the
underlying model) and ?mcp-priors (prior syntax), split out
from ?mcp.
Priors and distributions:
Default coefficient priors now follow the autoscaled defaults of
rstanarm: normal(0, 2.5 * sd(y) / sd(x)) for
identity links and normal(0, 2.5 / sd(x)) for log links,
where sd(x) is the standard deviation of the predictor’s
model-matrix column, including dummy variables for factors. For the
change-point variable, sd(x) is taken over all data (so
slope priors do not depend on the number of change points), powers such
as I(x^2) use sd((x - min(x))^2), and
interactions such as x:z use sd(x) * sd(z) (or
just sd(x) for 0/1 dummies as in x:state).
Version 0.3.4 used dt(0, sd(y) / (max(x) - min(x)), 3) for
Gaussian slopes, which is about 9 times narrower for evenly spread
x and noticeably shrank steep slopes in short segments.
Intercepts also follow rstanarm
(normal(mean(y), 2.5 * sd(y)) for Gaussian models), and the
default prior on the segment-1 intercept applies to the level at
min(x), just as rstanarm and brms
place intercept priors on centered predictors. Intercept_1
is still reported at x = 0, as in lm(), so
fit$prior and prior_summary() show its prior
given the x-terms, e.g.,
dnorm(mean(y) - x_1 * min(x), 2.5 * sd(y)). This greatly
improves sampling when x is far from zero, e.g., calendar
years. Likewise for factor levels and contrasts with their own x-terms,
e.g., stateb_1 in y ~ 1 + state * x.
sigma and group-level SDs follow brms. See
priors using prior_summary(fit, verbose = TRUE) and read
more about default
priors. The implicit Gaussian sigma_1 prior is now the
same response-calibrated half-Student-t used by brms,
dt(0, max(2.5, round(mad(y), 1)), 3) T(0, ). Version 0.3.4
instead used a response-SD-calibrated half-normal prior. Both are weakly
informative so will have negligible impact on fits.
Uppercase data-dependent constants for priors (MINX,
MAXX, etc.) remain temporarily supported with a deprecation
warning. They are now replaced with readable expressions such as
min(time), max(time) - min(time),
mad(response), n_segments(), and
n_cp().
Priors can no longer refer to the internal JAGS nodes
cp_0 and cp_K (e.g., cp_3 with
two change points). Use min(x) and max(x)
instead, as also shown in fit$prior.
Binomial and Bernoulli models with logit or probit links now use
narrower, weakly regularizing scales than rstanarm’s 2.5:
normal(0, 1.5) (logit) and normal(0, 1)
(probit) for intercepts, which are approximately and exactly uniform on
the probability scale, respectively. Coefficients and categorical
contrasts use normal(0, 1.5 / sd(x)) and
normal(0, 1 / sd(x)). See the
justification.
Gaussian models with log link
(gaussian(link = "log")): Now aligned with
mcp’s general log-link model standards (dnorm
rather than Student-t to reduce extreme multiplicative tails under
exponentiation). Population intercepts are robustly calibrated to
empirical log-data (with non-positive values replaced by 0.1, as
brms does for zeros) and shift with offset(),
and coefficients and categorical contrasts use rstanarm’s
dnorm(0, 2.5 / sd(x)).
Count model priors (poisson(),
negbinomial()): In v0.3.4, log-link Poisson models
used uncalibrated, unscaled dnorm(0, 10) for both
intercepts and slopes. In v0.4.0, population log-mean intercepts are now
robustly data-calibrated to dnorm(median(log(y)), ...)
(zeros replaced by 0.1, as in brms) with a minimum scale of
2.5, and automatically shift to the observed log-rate (\(\log(y) - \text{offset}\)) when an
offset() is present (calibrating location and scale
directly to rates, unlike brms, which subtracts
mean(offset) from the location but computes the scale from
the log-counts). Coefficients and categorical contrasts now use
rstanarm’s dnorm(0, 2.5 / sd(x)). For the new
RHS group-level features in v0.4.0, group SDs default to
dnorm(0, 2.5) T(0, ) (or scaled half-normals). Broad normal
priors follow the precedent of rstanarm, substantially
reducing extreme multiplicative effects and explosive prior simulations
compared with Student-t priors under exponentiation. Similarly, modeled
log-shape in negative-binomial (shape(...)) uses
dnorm(0, 2.5) and dnorm(0, 2.5 / sd(x)) rather
than Student-t priors (read
more).
Interface and data structures:
fit = mcp_example("name") now returns the fit
directly instead of a list with a $fit entry. It now
defaults to sampling the model (sample = "post") and the
sample argument is now directly passed to
mcp(..., sample = sample) so sample = TRUE is
deprecated.
The term “ct” (for “central tendency”) has been replaced with
dpar = "epred" (the default), e.g., in
plot_dpar(fit, dpar = "epred") and
fitted(fit, dpar = "epred"). Deprecated
which_y = "ct" is translated to dpar = "epred"
with a warning.
mcp(..., inits) can only set parameters in
mcp_pars(fit) and errors on other names. Parameters
reparameterized for faster sampling can no longer be initialized.
Initial values for change points must be ordered (read
more).
fit$data now only contains the data columns that are
used in the model.
draws_format replaces samples_format in
fitted(), predict(), and
log_lik(). The old argument remains available with a soft
deprecation. residuals() now also takes
draws_format, e.g.,
residuals(fit, summary = FALSE, draws_format = "matrix")
for a draws-by-observation matrix like brms.
Removed which_y argument from
predict().
rate = TRUE in fitted(),
predict(), and plot() now errors for families
other than binomial and Bernoulli. In v0.3.4, it was silently ignored.
For rates per unit of exposure in models with
offset(log(exposure)), set exposure to 1, e.g.,
fitted(fit, newdata = transform(df, exposure = 1)).
loo() and waic() always evaluate the
fitted model, including all group-level effects and AR/MA terms. Use
log_lik(fit, group_effects = FALSE) or
log_lik(fit, arma = FALSE) for conditional log-likelihoods.
Additionally, loo(ndraws = ...) and
waic(ndraws = ...) now thin draws evenly across chains to
preserve MCMC chain identities and order.
New mcpfit objects no longer include empty
$loo and $waic components.
is.mcpfit() is deprecated in favor of
is_mcpfit(), matching {posterior}’s
is_draws().
Requirements and removals:
mcp now requires R >= 4.1.0, matching its use of the native
pipe (|>).
Removed criterion() and
get_segment_table(). They now throw an error pointing to
their replacements: loo(fit) or waic(fit)
instead of criterion(fit), and mcp_pars(fit)
or mcp_columns(fit) on
fit = mcp(..., sample = FALSE) instead of
get_segment_table().
Removed the non-functional exponential() family. It
had no default priors and could not be fitted. Exponential survival
models would require dedicated support for censoring and survival
likelihoods rather than the previous ordinary-response
placeholder.
Equality hypotheses now warn when all prior draws lie on one side of the tested value: kernel smoothing can otherwise give misleading Bayes factors for values outside the prior bounds. Boundary tests receive the same warning; Bayes factor calculations are unchanged.
Named arguments in prior distributions or truncations
(e.g. dnorm(sd = 1, mean = 10)) are now rejected explicitly
with an informative error rather than being silently re-interpreted
positionally.
hypothesis(..., prior = TRUE) now reports
BF = NA rather than comparing prior draws with themselves
and returning a Bayes factor of 1.
Directional Bayes factors now divide posterior odds by prior odds. Previously, they reported posterior odds alone, which is only a Bayes factor when the prior probability of the hypothesis is 0.5.
residuals() now uses the conventional
observed - fitted sign. Previously, mcp
residuals used fitted - observed.
Poisson and negative binomial predictions no longer fail when a single draw implies a count mean above 2,146,275,819. This was common for prior predictions with default log-link priors.
Fixed several posterior predictive check and information-criterion bugs present in v0.3.4. From most to least serious:
For missing data: Missing responses were scored in WAIC/LOO as if their JAGS-imputed values had been observed. Fix: missing responses remain latent in JAGS but are excluded from observed-data PPC, log-likelihood, WAIC, and LOO calculations.
For models with group-level change points, LOO checks with
facet_by != NULL could pair group-specific predictions with
weights from the wrong observations.
For AR/MA models, pp_check() conditioned every
prediction on the observed response history. It now defaults to
arma = "replicate", generating each posterior replication
recursively as a fresh time series. Use arma = TRUE for the
previous one-step-ahead check. LOO predictive checks keep
arma = TRUE to match the one-step-ahead log-likelihood
behind their weights.
LOO checks with prior = TRUE incorrectly combined
prior predictions with posterior LOO weights. A rare use case.
pp_check(..., ndraws = NULL) errored.
Fixed.
Weighted regression now uses brms-style likelihood weights
throughout: JAGS targets the likelihood raised to weight,
log_lik() multiplies each log density by
weight, and predictive draws use the unweighted response
distribution. In v0.3.4, weights instead acted as Gaussian precision
weights and R-side predictions and information criteria were not fully
consistent with the fitted model.
In models going from higher-order to lower-order
(~ ar(2), ~ ar(1)), the higher-order components were not
turned off.
Change points without a population-level intercept (e.g.,
0 + (1 | id) ~ 1) now raise an error. Previously,
0 + was silently ignored. Group-level change points now
also accept (1 || id), which is identical to
(1 | id) for intercepts.
Bug only noticeable for very small samples: For Gaussian identity-link AR models, R-side calculations could leak residuals between posterior draws and omitted available partial lags for the first observations of AR(2+) models. Each draw is now evaluated as a separate series and uses the same partial-lag recurrence as JAGS.
Conditional R-side GARMA histories are now evaluated across
posterior draws rather than through a scalar loop over every draw and
observation. This substantially speeds up fitted(),
predict(), residuals(), and
log_lik() for AR/MA models.
The quantiles from fitted() and
predict() for group-level change-point models ignored the
group level and were identical across levels.
Explicitly setting dpar = "mu" now returns the
success probability parameter \(\mu\)
regardless of rate. rate only affects
"epred" and predictions, where the default
rate = FALSE returns counts (e.g., in
fitted(), predict(), and
posterior_epred()).
Now works for 200+ characters formulas too.
Fixed cores = "all" failed. Thanks for reporting,
@m-r-munroe!
In general, every effort has been made to anticipate future developments and build the structure needed for that.
The mcpfamily contains everything which was
previously scattered across multiple functions. This means it is easy to
add families and link functions - also enabling custom families in a
future release.
Major changes in how the model is translated into JAGS code, which is now module-like. The JAGS code is quite different but functionally equivalent. This opens for adding a new sampler in a future release.
More thorough defensive coding.
Much expanded test suite (now 10.000+ tests when run in full).
The test suite now includes external validation of inference and
simulation: AR against arima()/arima.sim(),
binomial against glm() / rbinom(), and
changepoints against {segmented}.
Fewer imports to userspace. This minimizes the risk of name conflicts.
This is a bug fix release.
cores argument to
mcp().This is a bug fix release.
ggplot >= 3.4.0,
tidyselect >= 1.2.0, and newer future by
replacing deprecated functions.mcp(..., cores = "all").iter argument to
mcp().This release contains no user-facing changes. The test suite suite is now compatible with dplyr 1.0.8, which caused the test suite to fail. This, in turn, would trigger the removal of mcp from CRAN.
This is mostly a bug fix release.
ex = mcp_example("demo", sample = TRUE) is the new
interface that replaces the ex_* datasets in prior
versions. This reduces clutter of the namespace/documentation and the
size of the package. It also gives the user richer details on the
simulation and analyses. For “demo”, the ex_demo dataset is
now ex$data and the ex_fit is
ex$fit.
Nicer printing of lists and texts all over. E.g., try
print(demo_fit$jags_code) and
print(demo_fit$pars).
tidybayes >= 3.0.0 and
dplyr >= 1.0.6Get fits and predictions for in-sample and out-of-sample data. Read more in the article on these functions.
predict(fit) to get predicted values and
quantiles.fitted(fit) to get estimated values and
quantiles.residuals(fit) to get residuals and quantiles.All of the above functions include many arguments that align with
(and extends) the options already in plot.mcpfit(),
including getting fits/predictions for sigma
(which_y = "sigma"), for the prior
(prior = TRUE), and arbitrary quantiles
(probs = c(0.1, 0.5, 0.999)). Use the newdata
argument to get out-of-sample fitted/predicted values. Set
summary = FALSE to get per-draw values.
Added support for weighted regression for gaussian families:
model = list(y | weights(weight_column) ~ 1 + x). Weights
are visualized as dot sizes in plot(fit).
Support for more link functions across families (e.g.,
family = gaussian(link = "log")):
gaussian: “identity”, “log”binomial: “logit”, “probit”, “identity”bernoulli: “logit”, “probit”, “identity”poisson: “log”, “identity”New argument scale in fitted(),
plot(), and fit$simulate(). When
scale = "response" (default), they return fits on the
response scale. When scale = "linear", they return fits on
the linear-predictor (link) scale. Useful for model understanding and
debugging.
Use pp_check(fit) to do prior/posterior predictive
checking. See pp_check(fit, type = "x") for a list of plot
types. pp_check(fit, facet_by = "group_column") facets by a
grouping column.
Improvements to plot():
plot(fit, facet_by = "group_column"). Previous releases
only displayed population-level change points.rate = FALSE
for binomial models.plot(fit) are not located
directly on the x-axis. They were “floating” 5% above the x-axis in the
previous releases.New argument nsamples reduces the number of samples
used in most functions to speed up processing.
nsamples = NULL uses all samples for maximum
accuracy.
New argument arma in many functions toggles whether
autoregressive effects should be modelled.
Although the API is still in alpha, feel free to try extracting
samples using mcp:::tidy_samples(fit). This is useful for
further processing using tidybayes, bayesplot,
etc. and is used extensively internally in mcp. One useful
feature is computing absolute values for group-specific change points:
mcp:::tidy_samples(fit, population = FALSE, absolute = TRUE).
Feedback is appreciated before tidy_samples becomes part of
the mcp API in a future release.
plot(fit) are now scaled to
20% of the plot for each chain X changepoint combo. This addresses a
common problem where a wide posterior was almost invisibly low when a
narrow posterior was present. This means that heights should only be
compared within each chain x changepoint combo - not
across.plot.mcpfit().ranef() and
fixef() returns.mcp robust and
agile to develop. mcp now use defensive programming with
helpful error messages. The Test suite includes 3600+ tests.plot(), predict(), etc. are now
considerably faster for AR(N) due to vectorization of the underlying
code.The API and internal structure should be stable now. v0.2.0 will be released on CRAN.
Model quadratic and other terms using I(x^2),
I(x^3.24), sin(x), sqrt(x),
etc.
Model residual standard deviation for
family = gaussian() using
~ sigma([formula here]).
Model Nth order autoregressive models using
~ ar(order, formula), typically like
y ~ 1 + x + ar(2) for AR(2). Simulate AR(N) models from
scratch or given known data with fit$simulate(). The article on
AR(N) has more details and examples. AR(N) models are popular to
detect changes in time-series.
Many updates to plot().
plot(fit, cp_dens = FALSE).plot(fit, q_fit = TRUE).
plot(fit, q_fit = c(0.025, 0.5, 0.975)) plots 95% HDI and
the median.plot(fit, q_predict = TRUE).plot(fit, geom_data = "line")). The latter is useful for
time series. Disable using geom_data = FALSE.Use options(mc.cores = 3) for considerable speed
gains for the rest of the session. All vignettes/articles have been
updated to recommend this as a default, though serial sampling is still
the technical default. mcp(..., cores = 3) does the same
thing on a call-by-ball basis.
fit$simulate() adds the simulation parameters as an
attribute (attr(y, "simulate")) to the predicted variable.
summary() recognizes this and adds the simulated values to
the results table (columns sim and match) so
that one can inspect whether the values were recovered.
Use plot(fit, which_y = "sigma") to plot the
residual standard deviation on the y-axis. It works for AR(N) as well,
e.g., which_y = "ar1", which_y = "ar2", etc.
This is useful to visualize changes in residual standard deviation and
autocorrelation. The relevant vignettes have been updated with worked
examples.
Much love for the priors:
prior = list(cp_1 = "dirichlet(1)", cp_2 = ...). Read pros
and cons here.mcp(..., sample = "prior") or
mcp(..., sample = "both") and most methods can now take the
prior: plot(fit, prior = TRUE),
plot_pars(fit, prior = TRUE),
summary(fit, prior = TRUE),
ranef(fit, prior = TRUE).mcp can now be cited! Call
citation("mcp") or see the pre-print here: https://osf.io/fzqxv.
fit$func_y()
–> fit$simulate().plot() only visualize the total fit while
plot_pars() only visualize individual parameters. These
functions were mixed in plot() previously.update has been discarded from
mcp() (it’s all on adapt now) and
inits has been added.mcp more future proof.
The biggest internal change is that rjags and
future replace the dclone package. Among other
things, this gives faster and cleaner installations.First public release.
loo and
hypothesisThese binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
Health stats visible at Monitor.