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footBayes 2.1.0

New models

• Add the Dixon-Coles model ("dixon_coles") to stan_foot(), static and dynamic, and to mle_foot().
• Add the negative binomial model ("neg_bin") to mle_foot().

Dynamic models in stan_foot()

• Add dynamic_par to choose the evolution variance: a common variance (common_sd, Owen, 2011) or a variance inflation after the summer break (kl_variance and periods_per_season, Koopman and Lit, 2015).
• Add dynamic_weight for the weighted dynamic models with commensurate priors (Macrì Demartino, Egidi and Torelli, 2026), with spike and slab hyperpriors set through dynamic_par$spike and dynamic_par$slab.

Other changes

• print.stanFoot() with teams keeps all the global parameters and shows the team names in the team-indexed parameters.
• foot_prob() supports the "dixon_coles" and "neg_bin" MLE models.
• Add an identifiability constraint to the Bradley-Terry-Davidson Stan models.
• Extend the confidence intervals of mle_foot() to the model-specific parameters and move the MLE simulations to the internal simulate_goals_mle().
• Rewrite the vignette.

Bug fixes

• Fix the likelihood of the static bivariate Poisson model.
• Draw y_rep and y_prev of the bivariate Poisson models from the bivariate Poisson distribution.
• Rewrite the diagonal-inflated bivariate Poisson model as in Karlis and Ntzoufras (2003), with the new parameter draw_dist for the draws.
• Return diff_y_prev in the bivariate Poisson and diagonal-inflated bivariate Poisson models.
• Fix the AIC and BIC of mle_foot() to count only the free parameters of each model.
• Fix foot_prob() for MLE models, which used object$home instead of object$home_effect.
• Fix compare_foot() with NA rows in a probability matrix, which misaligned the outcomes of the following elements of source.
• Match ranking in stan_foot() to the teams by name instead of by position, with informative errors for missing or duplicated teams.
• Fix the observed frequencies in pp_foot(type = "aggregated") for models fitted with predict > 0.

Documentation

• Update foot_abilities() for the six MLE models.
• Fix the documentation of italy, priors, btd_foot(), compare_foot(), plot_logStrength() and of norm_method and rho in stan_foot().

footBayes 2.0.1

• Updated vignette.
• Correct typo in foot_compare() description.
• Correct typo in pp_foot() description.

footBayes 2.0.0

• Migration from rstan interface to CmdStanR interface.
• Add support for the VI, pathfinder and laplace algorithms.
• Add pre-compiled CmdStan models using the package instantiate.
• Add AIC and BIC output elements in mle_foot().
• Add Bayesian static/dynamic Negative Binomial model in stan_foot().
• Minor ggplot2 edits on foot_rank(), foot_abilities() and pp_foot().
• Updated vignette.

footBayes 1.0.0

• Bradley-Terry model for abilities.
• Dynamic ranking in the models.
• Updated vignette.
• Probabilistic predictive performance (pseudo-R squared, Brier score, etc.).

footBayes 0.2.0

• Inclusion of diagonal-inflated bivariate Poisson and zero-inflated Skellam models.
• Minor edits and drop engsoccerdata dependence.
• Updated vignette.

footBayes 0.1.0

• First submission to CRAN.

These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
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