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extr 1.1.0 (2026-03-14)

Changes in 1.1.0

• Added method = "oear" to ext_di(), allowing extinction probability estimates and associated confidence intervals to be computed using an observation-error-and-autocovariance-robust (OEAR) plug-in variance estimate.
• Implemented the OEAR variance estimator using HAC long-run variance estimation with AR(1) pre-whitening and a Bartlett kernel.
• Added OEAR diagnostics (rho_tilde_pw and j) to the returned object and printed output.
• Updated method-specific output: for method = "naive", output includes Variance and aic; for method = "oear", output includes Process variance (OEAR), reports aic as NA, and reports lower_cl_s and upper_cl_s using a chi-square-based pragmatic plug-in approximation.

extr 1.0.0 (2025-09-15)

Up to 0.9.0

• Core extinction-risk estimator ext_di for density-independent (drifted Wiener) models.
• Includes MLEs of growth rate and environmental variance from irregular time series.
• Includes point estimate of extinction probability.
• Includes confidence intervals for extinction probability (w-z method) with near-nominal coverage.
• Includes optional QQ-plot diagnostic.

Changes in 1.0.0

• Numerical stability and range:
  • Adaptive probability representation on G, log G, and log(1-G).
  • Uses complement form when G is near 0 or 1 to maintain numerical accuracy.
  • Log-scale representation extends safe range down to symbolic exp(-DBL_MAX).
  • Probabilities near 0 or 1 are displayed as 10^-* or 1-10^-*.
• Printed output:
  • Printed precision is configurable via options("extr.digits").

These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
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