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Two new functions simula_BPF and
simula_BPF_with_deviations are included in the package to
simulate, departing from the basic underlying model in BPF,
both marginal election results and unit vote transfer matrices, using
(i) exclusively the underlying model in BPF and (ii) this
model including ecological fallacy effects.
When covariates are used, the model transition probabilities
estimated in each unit depend on the values of the covariates in the
unit. A new output has been included in the BPF function to
account for this. When covariates are not NULL, the list output of
BPF contains an array with the estimated model transition
probabilities corresponding to each unit.
A new option,"hyper", has been added for the
local argument of the BPF function, which is
call "hyper". When local = "hyper", transition
matrices are estimated for each unit, and the default global solution is
obtained by aggregating these unit-level estimates. In this case, the
estimate for each unit assumes a multi-hypergeometric distribution for
the table’s inner values, given the observed row and column margins. The
maximum likelihood estimate for each unit is then determined by randomly
searching in the vicinity of the translated initial estimated transition
matrix for that unit.
The algorithm to estimate vote transfers at polling units when
local = "lik" has been changed. The package NlcOptim (>=
0.6) is now required for this option of the local argument
of BPF.
These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
Health stats visible at Monitor.