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The goal of branchingprocess is to quantify outbreak
risk posed by individual importers of a transmissible pathogen. Input
parameters of negative binomial offspring distributions for the number
of transmissions from each infected individual and initial number of
infected. Calculate probabilities of final outbreak size and generations
of transmission. A full description and derivation of the mathematical
results implemented in these functions can be found in the following
manuscripts:
Toth D, Gundlapalli A, Khader K, Pettey W, Rubin M, Adler F, Samore M (2015). Estimates of outbreak risk from new introductions of Ebola with immediate and delayed transmission control. Emerg Infect Dis, 21(8), 1402-1408. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2108.150170.
Toth D, Tanner W, Khader K, Gundlapalli A (2016). Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula. Epidemics, 16, 27-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002
Work to create this software tool was made possible by cooperative agreement CDC-RFA-FT-23-0069 from the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.
You can install the development version of
branchingprocess from GitHub with:
devtools::install_github("EpiForeSITE/branchingprocess")You can install branchingprocess from CRAN with:
install.packages("branchingprocess")These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
Health stats visible at Monitor.