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birthrate parameter.propop() to ensure that the
first projected year (start_year) is at least one year
ahead of the population data.calculate_shares().propop::propop() offers a new method for subregional
migration. The new method uses migration rates rather
than net migration (number of people).calculate_rates() and calculate_shares().The computations of the key function propop() are
now implemented using data frames and ‘purrr’ / ‘dplyr’ rather than base
‘R’ matrices. This change makes the computational steps and intermediate
results more accessible and easier to follow. Moreover, the new tabular
approach facilitates the integration of new features. On the downside,
the new approach takes approximately 25% longer to run. The data input
remains unchanged.
While implementing this alternative computation we fixed a minor bug that had a tiny effect on the oldest age group.
The function now offers a new feature: subregional migration can be calculated using rates in addition to using net numbers.
Projection output: The components now include the suffix
_n, which more clearly
distinguishes input parameters (e.g. emi_int) from
number of people (e.g. emi_nat_n).
New helper functions for propop():
project_population() is a wrapper function;
advance_population() ages the population by one year;
calculate_projection() advances the cohort to the next
year; calculate_newborns() computes births.
New tests have been added for propop() and helper
functions, as well as for comparing the output of propop()
and propop_legacy(). The comparison is sensitive to
differences larger than three people in total by year 2055 (using data
for the Canton of Aargau).
propop() was renamed to
propop_legacy() and was deprecated together with
complement_projection(),
create_transition_matrix(),
create_birth_matrix(),
create_fertility_matrix(),
create_mortality_matrix(),
create_empty_vector() and project_raw().
propop_legacy() and associated helper function will stay
operational.propop::propop() can now perform multiple projection
scenarios in a single run.check_balance() to check population
equation for each row in the output of propop::propop()
(population at the beginning of the year plus components must be equal
to the population at the end of the year).prepare_evaluation() has an additional set
of age groups (0-19, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, 80 years and older). The
output that is created by this function can be used by
compute_measures() and aggregate_measures() to
evaluate projection models against a benchmark.get_population(): Using clearer, more intuitive name
for argument to specify start year; less typing for users;calculate_shares() to distribute FSO
estimates expressed as “number of people” among sub-cantonal entitities
(e.g., immigration to municipalities).prepare_evaluation() by
offering possibility to indicate which column contains the population
(rather than assuming it’s called n).propop::propop() now uses separate input
parameters for emigration to / immigration from other cantons.
Previously propop::propop() used the net difference between
emigration to / immigration from other cantons.propop::propop() returns a plain text feedback in the
console summarizing the settings used to run the projection.The ‘propop’ package is a successor of ‘staagBevProj’ (not publicly available), which was last updated in December 2022. ‘staagBevProj’ was developed by Tina Cornioley, Jan Wunder, and Niklas Haffert. As head of Official Statistics Aargau, Andrea Plüss supported the devlopment as well as the publication of ‘staagBevProj’ and ‘propop’.
‘propop’ was developed by Norah Efosa and Adrian Gadient (Statistik Aargau). The main innovations are:
projectPop() and projectAll())These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
Health stats visible at Monitor.