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Title:

Bayesian Household Transmission Modeling with 'Stan'

Version:

0.1.1

Description:

Provides a streamlined pipeline to simulate household infection dynamics, estimate transmission parameters, and visualize epidemic timelines. Uses a Bayesian approach with 'Stan' that models transmission probability as a function of viral load, seasonality and infectivity, multiple infection episodes (reinfections), and waning immunity modeling. Li et al. (2026) <doi:10.64898/2026.04.01.26349903>).

License:

MIT + file LICENSE

Encoding:

UTF-8

RoxygenNote:

7.3.3

Biarch:

true

Depends:

R (≥ 3.4.0)

Imports:

methods, Rcpp (≥ 0.12.0), rstan (≥ 2.18.1), rstantools (≥ 2.4.0), dplyr, ggplot2, tidyr, ggpubr, scales, deSolve, rlang

LinkingTo:

BH (≥ 1.66.0), Rcpp (≥ 0.12.0), RcppEigen (≥ 0.3.3.3.0), RcppParallel (≥ 5.0.1), rstan (≥ 2.18.1), StanHeaders (≥ 2.18.0)

SystemRequirements:

GNU make

Suggests:

knitr, rmarkdown, RcppParallel (≥ 5.0.1), cowplot

VignetteBuilder:

knitr

URL:

https://github.com/keli5734/HHBayes

BugReports:

https://github.com/keli5734/HHBayes/issues

NeedsCompilation:

yes

Packaged:

2026-04-06 13:53:57 UTC; yh785

Author:

Ke Li

[aut, cre], Yiren Hou

[aut]

Maintainer:

Ke Li <ke.li.kl662@yale.edu>

Repository:

CRAN

Date/Publication:

2026-04-10 14:00:07 UTC

HHBayes: Bayesian Household Transmission Modeling with 'Stan'

Description

Details

Funding

This work was supported by a grant from the National Institutes of Health (R01AI137093). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Author(s)

Maintainer: Ke Li ke.li.kl662@yale.edu (ORCID)

Authors:

Yiren Hou yiren.hou@yale.edu (ORCID)

Quick Secondary Attack Rate (SAR) Calculator

Description

A drop-in replacement for a legacy calculate_sar_quick() function. Calls calculate_sar_robust with recommended defaults: generation = "strict_secondary" and pooling = "mean_of_hh".

Usage

calculate_sar_quick(sim_result)

Arguments

sim_result

A named list containing a hh_df data frame. See calculate_sar_robust for details.

Value

See calculate_sar_robust.

Examples

# Quick example
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
sim$hh_df$infector_id <- NA
sim$hh_df$susceptible_at_start <- TRUE
sar <- calculate_sar_quick(sim)
sar$overall

Calculate Secondary Attack Rate (SAR)

Description

Computes household secondary attack rates (SAR) from simulation output, with fixes for generation conflation, co-index ambiguity, inconsistent pooling, community importation, infinite first-infection time, and susceptibility at study entry.

Usage

calculate_sar_robust(
  sim_result,
  generation = c("strict_secondary", "all_subsequent"),
  pooling = c("mean_of_hh", "pooled"),
  alpha_flag = TRUE,
  verbose = TRUE
)

Arguments

sim_result

A named list containing at minimum a hh_df data frame with household simulation output. Required columns: hh_id, person_id, role, infection_time, infector_id, susceptible_at_start.

generation

Character string controlling which infections count toward the SAR numerator. One of:

"strict_secondary": (default) Only generation-2 infections (i.e., directly infected by the index case).
"all_subsequent": All non-index infections, regardless of generation (original behavior).

pooling

Character string controlling how household-level SARs are aggregated. One of:

"mean_of_hh": (default) Each household receives equal weight (recommended).
"pooled": Individual-level pooling; larger households receive more weight.

alpha_flag

Logical. If TRUE (default), emits a warning when post-index infections with no recorded within-household infector are detected, suggesting possible community importation.

verbose

Logical. If TRUE (default), prints diagnostic messages via rlang::inform().

Value

A named list with two elements:

overall: Numeric scalar: the overall household SAR.
by_age: Data frame of role-specific SARs, including n_households, sar, sar_sd, sar_se, sar_lo, sar_hi, n_secondary, n_suscept, and overall_sar.

Examples

# Quick example with 2 households
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
sim$hh_df$infector_id <- NA
sim$hh_df$susceptible_at_start <- TRUE
sar <- calculate_sar_robust(sim, generation = "all_subsequent")
sar$overall

Fill Missing Viral Data (Cycle Threshold or Log10) Based on Episode Start

Description

This function imputes missing viral data during confirmed episodes using theoretical trajectories defined by the parameters.

Usage

fill_missing_viral_data(
  df,
  viral_col_name,
  type = c("ct_value", "log10"),
  params_list,
  detection_limit
)

Arguments

df

Data frame containing person_id, episode_id, date, role_name, and the viral column.

viral_col_name

String. Name of the column containing viral data (e.g. "ct_value").

type

String. Either "ct_value" or "log10".

params_list

List of parameters for the curves (role-specific).

detection_limit

Numeric. Value to assign for non-infected days (e.g. 45 for Ct, 0 for log10).

Value

The original data frame with NAs in the viral column filled.

Examples

# Create a sample data frame with some missing Ct values
df <- data.frame(
  person_id = rep(1, 10),
  episode_id = c(rep(0, 3), rep(1, 5), rep(0, 2)),
  date = seq(as.Date("2024-07-01"), by = "day", length.out = 10),
  role_name = "adult",
  ct_value = c(45, 45, 45, NA, 30, 28, NA, 35, 45, 45)
)

# Define Ct parameters for imputation
ct_params <- list(
  adult = list(Cpeak = 33, r = 1.5, d = 1.2, t_peak = 5)
)

# Fill missing values
df_filled <- fill_missing_viral_data(
  df = df,
  viral_col_name = "ct_value",
  type = "ct_value",
  params_list = ct_params,
  detection_limit = 45
)
df_filled$ct_value

Fit Household Transmission Model

Description

Fits the compiled Stan model to the prepared household data.

Usage

fit_household_model(
  stan_data,
  iter = 2000,
  chains = 4,
  warmup = 1000,
  init_fun = NULL,
  ...
)

Arguments

stan_data

A list of data formatted by prepare_stan_data.

iter

Integer. Number of iterations per chain (including warmup). Defaults to 2000.

chains

Integer. Number of Markov chains. Defaults to 4.

warmup

Integer. Number of warmup iterations. Defaults to 1000.

init_fun

Function or List. Initial values for the sampler. If NULL, uses robust defaults tailored for this model.

...

Additional arguments passed to rstan::sampling (e.g., cores, seed).

Value

A stanfit object containing the posterior samples.

Examples

# Show default initial values (does not require Stan compilation)
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
stan_input <- prepare_stan_data(
  df_clean = sim$diagnostic_df,
  study_start_date = as.Date("2024-07-01"),
  study_end_date = as.Date("2024-07-30"),
  use_vl_data = TRUE,
  seed = 123
)
# Inspect data dimensions passed to the model
stan_input$N   # number of person-episodes
stan_input$H   # number of households
stan_input$R   # number of roles

Compute Theoretical Cycle Threshold (Ct) Trajectory (Piecewise Linear)

Description

Compute Theoretical Cycle Threshold (Ct) Trajectory (Piecewise Linear)

Usage

get_theoretical_ct(t, p)

Compute Theoretical Log10 Viral Load Trajectory (Double Exponential)

Description

Compute Theoretical Log10 Viral Load Trajectory (Double Exponential)

Usage

get_theoretical_vl(t, p)

Plot Covariate Coefficients (Forest Plot)

Description

Generates a forest plot showing the estimated log-linear covariate effects on susceptibility and infectivity, with median and 95 percent credible intervals.

Usage

plot_covariate_effects(fit, stan_data)

Arguments

fit

A stanfit object returned by fit_household_model.

stan_data

A list of data formatted by prepare_stan_data.

Value

A ggplot object displaying covariate effect estimates.

Examples

# This function requires a fitted 'Stan' model with covariates.
# Prepare input data with a covariate (runs in seconds):
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
names(sim$hh_df)

Plot Dual-Axis Epidemic Curve (Binned)

Description

Overlays a stacked bar chart of simulated infections with a line chart of surveillance data. Both datasets are aggregated by bin_width days.

Usage

plot_epidemic_curve(
  sim_result,
  surveillance_df,
  start_date_str = "2024-07-01",
  bin_width = 7
)

Arguments

sim_result

Output object from simulate_multiple_households_comm.

surveillance_df

Data frame with date and cases columns.

start_date_str

String. Start date of the simulation.

bin_width

Integer. Aggregation window in days (default 7).

Value

A ggplot object.

Examples

# Quick example with minimal data
surv_df <- data.frame(
  date = seq(as.Date("2024-07-01"), as.Date("2024-07-30"), by = "day"),
  cases = rpois(30, lambda = 3)
)
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  surveillance_df = surv_df,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
plot_epidemic_curve(sim, surv_df, start_date_str = "2024-07-01")

Plot Household Timeline with Person-Centric Reinfections

Description

Displays a timeline for a single household showing each member's infection events and the estimated transmission links (with probabilities) between them.

Usage

plot_household_timeline(
  trans_df,
  stan_data,
  target_hh_id,
  start_date_str = "2024-10-08",
  prob_cutoff = 0,
  plot_width = 11,
  plot_height = 7
)

Arguments

trans_df

A data frame of transmission events (e.g., from extract_transmission_pairs).

stan_data

A list of data formatted by prepare_stan_data.

target_hh_id

Integer. The household ID to plot.

start_date_str

Character. Study start date in "YYYY-MM-DD" format. Defaults to "2024-10-08".

prob_cutoff

Numeric. Minimum transmission probability to display. Defaults to 0.

plot_width

Numeric. Width of the plot in inches. Defaults to 11.

plot_height

Numeric. Height of the plot in inches. Defaults to 7.

Value

A ggplot object displaying the household infection timeline.

Examples

# Reconstruct chains and plot a household timeline (no 'Stan' fit needed)
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
stan_input <- prepare_stan_data(
  df_clean = sim$diagnostic_df,
  study_start_date = as.Date("2024-07-01"),
  study_end_date = as.Date("2024-07-30"),
  use_vl_data = TRUE
)
sim_params <- list(
  beta1 = 8e-3, beta2 = 8e-3, alpha_comm = 5e-4,
  gen_shape = 3, gen_rate = 1,
  phi = c(1, 4, 5, 1), kappa = c(1, 1, 1.2, 1)
)
chains <- reconstruct_transmission_chains(
  stan_data = stan_input,
  sim_params = sim_params
)
if (nrow(chains) > 0) {
  plot_household_timeline(
    trans_df = chains,
    stan_data = stan_input,
    target_hh_id = 1,
    start_date_str = "2024-07-01"
  )
}

Plot Posterior Distributions (Phi and Kappa)

Description

Creates violin plots of the posterior distributions for role-specific susceptibility (phi) and infectivity (kappa) parameters on the log10 scale.

Usage

plot_posterior_distributions(fit)

Arguments

fit

A stanfit object returned by fit_household_model.

Value

A ggplot object displaying posterior violin plots.

Examples

# This function requires a fitted 'Stan' model object.
# Prepare input data (runs in seconds):
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
stan_input <- prepare_stan_data(
  df_clean = sim$diagnostic_df,
  study_start_date = as.Date("2024-07-01"),
  study_end_date = as.Date("2024-07-30"),
  use_vl_data = TRUE
)
names(stan_input)

Prepare Data for Stan Model

Description

Transforms a diagnostic data frame into the structured list that the Stan household transmission model expects. Handles column renaming, infection window imputation, viral load gap-filling, covariate matrix construction, contact matrix generation, and prior specification.

Usage

prepare_stan_data(
  df_clean,
  surveillance_df = NULL,
  role_levels = c("adult", "infant", "toddler", "elderly"),
  study_start_date = as.Date("2024-07-01"),
  study_end_date = as.Date("2025-07-01"),
  seasonal_forcing_list = NULL,
  use_vl_data = TRUE,
  use_curve_logic = FALSE,
  covariates_susceptibility = NULL,
  covariates_infectivity = NULL,
  model_type = "empirical",
  ODE_params_list = NULL,
  delta = 0,
  role_mixing_matrix = NULL,
  recovery_params = NULL,
  imputation_params = NULL,
  priors = list(),
  seed = 123
)

Arguments

df_clean

Data frame with observation data (must contain episode_id from simulation or data).

surveillance_df

Data frame with columns date and cases.

role_levels

Character vector. Role categories to use. Defaults to c("adult", "infant", "toddler", "elderly").

study_start_date

Date. Start date of the study period. Defaults to 2024-07-01.

study_end_date

Date. End date of the study period. Defaults to 2025-07-01.

seasonal_forcing_list

List of numeric vectors (one per role) for seasonal forcing. NULL for no forcing.

use_vl_data

Logical. Whether to include viral load data. Defaults to TRUE.

use_curve_logic

Logical. Whether to use the Gamma generation interval curve as a fallback for infectiousness when use_vl_data = FALSE. When use_vl_data = TRUE this argument is ignored. Defaults to FALSE.

covariates_susceptibility

Vector of column names to use as covariates for susceptibility.

covariates_infectivity

Vector of column names to use as covariates for infectivity.

model_type

String, either "empirical" or "ODE" (ordinary differential equation).

ODE_params_list

List of ordinary differential equation (ODE) parameters (beta, delta, etc.) by role.

delta

Numeric. Household size scaling parameter. When delta > 0, transmission rates are scaled by (1/max(household_size, 1))^delta. Should match the value used in simulation. Defaults to 0 (no scaling).

role_mixing_matrix

4x4 Matrix defining contact weights between roles.

recovery_params

List of Gamma parameters (shape, scale) for the immunity tail by role.

imputation_params

List of parameters for mechanistic viral curves (Cpeak, r, d, t_peak) by role.

priors

List of flexible priors (dist, params).

seed

Integer. Random seed for reproducibility. Defaults to 123.

Value

A named list formatted for input to the Stan model.

Examples

# Quick example with 2 households over a short period
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
stan_input <- prepare_stan_data(
  df_clean = sim$diagnostic_df,
  study_start_date = as.Date("2024-07-01"),
  study_end_date = as.Date("2024-07-30"),
  use_vl_data = TRUE,
  seed = 123
)
names(stan_input)
stan_input$N
stan_input$H

Reconstruct Transmission Chains

Description

Saves ALL potential infectors for each infection episode. Works in two modes: estimation mode (supply a fit object) or simulation mode (supply a sim_params list of known ground-truth values).

Usage

reconstruct_transmission_chains(
  fit = NULL,
  stan_data,
  sim_params = NULL,
  min_prob_threshold = 0.01
)

Arguments

fit

A stanfit object from rstan. Required unless sim_params is provided.

stan_data

The list of data passed to Stan (or used in simulation).

sim_params

A named list of ground-truth parameters for simulation mode. Required fields: beta1, beta2, alpha_comm, gen_shape, gen_rate, phi, kappa. Optional: vl_midpoint, vl_slope, beta_susc, beta_inf.

min_prob_threshold

Minimum probability to retain a transmission link. Default 0.01.

Value

A data frame with columns: target, hh_id, day, source, prob.

Examples

# Reconstruct chains using known simulation parameters (no 'Stan' fit needed)
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
stan_input <- prepare_stan_data(
  df_clean = sim$diagnostic_df,
  study_start_date = as.Date("2024-07-01"),
  study_end_date = as.Date("2024-07-30"),
  use_vl_data = TRUE
)
sim_params <- list(
  beta1 = 8e-3, beta2 = 8e-3, alpha_comm = 5e-4,
  gen_shape = 3, gen_rate = 1,
  phi = c(1, 4, 5, 1), kappa = c(1, 1, 1.2, 1)
)
chains <- reconstruct_transmission_chains(
  stan_data = stan_input,
  sim_params = sim_params,
  min_prob_threshold = 0.01
)
head(chains)

Simulate Household Transmission

Description

Simulates infection dynamics across multiple households with community forcing.

Usage

simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 50,
  surveillance_df = NULL,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2025-06-30",
  alpha_comm_by_role = 5e-04,
  beta1 = 0.008,
  beta2 = 0.008,
  delta = 0,
  phi_by_role = c(adult = 1, infant = 4, toddler = 5, elderly = 1),
  kappa_by_role = c(adult = 1, infant = 1, toddler = 1.2, elderly = 1),
  infectious_shape = 3,
  infectious_scale = 1,
  waning_shape = 16,
  waning_scale = 10,
  peak_day = 1,
  width = 4,
  verbose = FALSE,
  seasonal_forcing_list = NULL,
  detect_threshold_log10 = 1e-06,
  detect_threshold_Ct = 40,
  surveillance_interval = 1,
  test_daily = FALSE,
  viral_testing = "viral load",
  V_ref = 3,
  V_rho = 2.5,
  Ct_50 = 40,
  Ct_delta = 2,
  VL_params_list = NULL,
  Ct_params_list = NULL,
  household_profile_list = NULL,
  perfect_detection = TRUE,
  contact_mat = NULL,
  role_mixing_matrix = NULL,
  model_type = "empirical",
  ODE_params_list = NULL,
  covariates_config = NULL,
  seed = NULL,
  max_infections = Inf
)

Arguments

n_households

Integer. Number of households to simulate. Defaults to 50.

surveillance_df

Data frame with columns date and cases for community forcing. NULL for none.

start_date

Character. Simulation start date ("YYYY-MM-DD"). Defaults to "2024-07-01".

end_date

Character. Simulation end date ("YYYY-MM-DD"). Defaults to "2025-06-30".

alpha_comm_by_role

Numeric or named vector. Community acquisition rate by role. Defaults to 5e-4.

beta1

Numeric. Within-household transmission rate (pathway 1). Defaults to 8e-3.

beta2

Numeric. Within-household transmission rate (pathway 2). Defaults to 8e-3.

delta

Numeric. Co-infection parameter. Defaults to 0.

phi_by_role

Named numeric vector. Susceptibility multipliers by role.

kappa_by_role

Named numeric vector. Infectivity multipliers by role.

infectious_shape

Numeric. Shape parameter for the Gamma infectious period. Defaults to 3.

infectious_scale

Numeric. Scale parameter for the Gamma infectious period. Defaults to 1.

waning_shape

Numeric. Shape parameter for the Gamma immunity waning period. Defaults to 16.

waning_scale

Numeric. Scale parameter for the Gamma immunity waning period. Defaults to 10.

peak_day

Numeric. Day of peak infectiousness. Defaults to 1.

width

Numeric. Width of the infectiousness peak. Defaults to 4.

verbose

Logical. Print progress messages. Defaults to FALSE.

seasonal_forcing_list

List of numeric vectors for seasonal forcing by role. NULL for none.

detect_threshold_log10

Numeric. Detection threshold on log10 viral load scale. Defaults to 1e-6.

detect_threshold_Ct

Numeric. Detection threshold on cycle threshold (Ct) scale. Defaults to 99.

surveillance_interval

Integer. Days between surveillance tests. Defaults to 1.

test_daily

Logical. Whether to test daily. Defaults to FALSE.

viral_testing

Character. Type of viral testing: "viral load" or "Ct" (cycle threshold). Defaults to "viral load".

V_ref

Numeric. Reference viral load for transmission scaling. Defaults to 3.0.

V_rho

Numeric. Exponent for viral load scaling. Defaults to 2.5.

Ct_50

Numeric. Cycle threshold (Ct) value at 50 percent detection probability. Defaults to 40.

Ct_delta

Numeric. Steepness of the Ct detection curve. Defaults to 2.

VL_params_list

List of viral load trajectory parameters by role. NULL for defaults.

Ct_params_list

List of cycle threshold (Ct) trajectory parameters by role. NULL for defaults.

household_profile_list

List defining household composition probabilities. NULL for defaults.

perfect_detection

Logical. Whether detection is perfect. Defaults to TRUE.

contact_mat

Matrix. Custom contact matrix between individuals. NULL for default.

role_mixing_matrix

Matrix. Contact weights between roles. 4x4 Matrix where element (i,j) represents contact weight FROM role j TO role i. For asymmetric patterns, role_mixing_matrix(adult, infant) != role_mixing_matrix(infant, adult). Use dimnames(role_mixing_matrix) <- list(role_levels, role_levels). NULL for default.

model_type

Character. Either "empirical" or "ODE" (ordinary differential equation). Defaults to "empirical".

ODE_params_list

List of ordinary differential equation (ODE) parameters by role. NULL for defaults.

covariates_config

List defining covariate configurations. NULL for none.

seed

Integer. Random seed. NULL for no seed.

max_infections

Numeric. Maximum infections per person. Defaults to Inf.

Value

A list with two elements: hh_df (household-level results) and diagnostic_df (testing results).

Examples

# Quick simulation with 2 households over a short period
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
head(sim$hh_df)
head(sim$diagnostic_df)

Summarize Attack Rates and Reinfections

Description

Calculates the Primary Attack Rate (proportion of people infected at least once) and a separate summary of Reinfections (secondary episodes).

Usage

summarize_attack_rates(sim_result)

Arguments

sim_result

A list object returned by simulate_multiple_households_comm.

Value

A list containing four data frames:

primary_overall: Overall primary attack rate statistics.
primary_by_role: Primary attack rate stratified by age group.
reinf_overall: Overall summary of reinfection counts and rates.
reinf_by_role: Reinfection counts stratified by age group.

Examples

# Quick example with 2 households
sim <- simulate_multiple_households_comm(
  n_households = 2,
  start_date = "2024-07-01",
  end_date = "2024-07-30",
  seed = 42
)
ar <- summarize_attack_rates(sim)
ar$primary_overall

HHBayes: Bayesian Household Transmission Modeling with 'Stan'

Description

Details

Funding

Author(s)

See Also

Quick Secondary Attack Rate (SAR) Calculator

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

See Also

Examples

Calculate Secondary Attack Rate (SAR)

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Fill Missing Viral Data (Cycle Threshold or Log10) Based on Episode Start

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Fit Household Transmission Model

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Compute Theoretical Cycle Threshold (Ct) Trajectory (Piecewise Linear)

Description

Usage

Compute Theoretical Log10 Viral Load Trajectory (Double Exponential)

Description

Usage

Plot Covariate Coefficients (Forest Plot)

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Plot Dual-Axis Epidemic Curve (Binned)

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Plot Household Timeline with Person-Centric Reinfections

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Plot Posterior Distributions (Phi and Kappa)

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Prepare Data for Stan Model

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Reconstruct Transmission Chains

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Simulate Household Transmission

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value

Examples

Summarize Attack Rates and Reinfections