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GACE

Generalized Adaptive Capped Estimator
A stable, deterministic forecasting engine for weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly data.

Overview

GACE provides a transparent, tuning-free forecasting method based on hybrid growth signals and adaptive asymmetric caps.
It extends deterministic capped-growth forecasting to support weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly time series with optional seasonal scaling.

The method is designed for:

• demand forecasting
  
• operational forecasting
  
• financial and portfolio forecasting
  
• budgeting and scenario planning

The philosophy: Stable + Interpretable + Fast
No nonlinear optimization. No stochastic fitting. Fully deterministic.

Features

• Supports weekly / monthly / quarterly / yearly data
  
• Hybrid growth signals (year-over-year, short-term, rolling, drift)
  
• Volatility-aware asymmetric caps
  
• Seasonal and non-seasonal modes
  
• Deterministic, extremely fast computation
  
• plot_gace() for visualization
  
• Lightweight dependencies

Installation

Install the released version from CRAN:

install.packages("GACE")

Example

library(GACE)

set.seed(1)
y <- ts(rnorm(60, mean = 100, sd = 10), frequency = 12)

fc <- gace_forecast(y, periods = 12, freq = "month")
plot_gace(fc)

These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
Health stats visible at Monitor.